Coronavirus COVID19 | LIVE – Why are there two different fatality rates 3.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent?

al sahawat times covid19


Coronavirus COVID19 LIVE updates


Coronavirus COVID19 LIVE updates – FACT CHECKED and VERIFIED

Why are there two very different official death rates for COVID19 and what do they mean?

CLOSED CASE DEATH RATE 6.92%

The closed case death rate is the calculated by comparing the number of recovered patients to the number of deaths. This is held are the most accurate metric for death rates. To date 68’672 people have recovered from COVID19 with 4’754 deaths. This means that out of all the people who have a conclusion to their infection 6.923% resulted in a fatality.

OPEN CASE DEATH RATE 3.66%

The open case death rate is somewhat misleading but is a favourite among politicians so as to reduce public fear and panic. The open case rate is calculated by comparing the total number historic and current cases, open and closed (recovered patients plus the number of critical patients plus the number of mild, moderate and symptom free patients) against the death rate. This is some what misleading because by definition the open cases are yet to have a conclusion which could be either a recovery or fatality. Under the open case death rate these either-outcome cases are calculated as recoveries despite the patients remaining infected. To date there are 68’672 recoveries + 51’019 mild to moderate cases + 5’711 cases + 4’754 cases theses are combined then compared to the 4’754 deaths giving a death rate of 3.66%. A very inaccurate and misleading figure.

Why is Open Case Death Rating so misleading? 

Imagine a totally hypothetical infection called Infection-A, if 50’000 people are currently actively infected, with 500 recoveries and 49’500 deaths then under the Open Case Death Rate the fatality rate is 49.5%. But this is not true as of the concluded cases 90% resulted in fatality. So if the currently infected cases had the same outcomes the total recoveries would be 1’000. Yet the Open Case Death Rate assumes all of the 50’000 actively infected cases will make full recoveries.


CURRENT CLOSED CASE FATALITY RATE: 6.923%

ACTIVE CASES: 56’730

Mild to Moderate condition: 51’019 (89%)

Critical condition: 5’711 (11%)


CLOSED CASES: 73’426

Recovered: 68’672 (93%)

Fatalities: 4’754 (7%)


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About the Author

Caleb Simmons
Caleb Simmons | Journalist Since: 2003 | New York - Abu Dhabi - London - Barcelona

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