Theresa May crisis talks | Resignations and votes of no confidence can the UK survive Brexit?

Theresa May in crisis talks amidst resignations and at least 18 votes of no confidence over Brexit

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Today saw the biggest disruption to Parliament since World War 2 and it’s only 10 am.

Following the 19th member of parliament throwing in the towel under her rule, pro-Brexit Theresa May called up on senior cabinet minister Michael Grove to step in as replacement Brexit Secretary. Grove refused the position instead indicating his intentions to leave the conservative government entirely. If he does so this will make him the 20th member of parliament to do so under Theresa May’s troubled and often mocked leadership.

On Wednesday May submitted her draft proposal of a Brexit deal. The deal would see the UK tied to the EU indefinitely having to conform to EU laws, human rights, environmental issues, fishing and immigration rules as well as continuing to contribute annual fees of £20bn. The UK however would loose it’s EU membership, loose it’s right to vote in any EU matters and loose EU privileges such as European arrest warrants, intelligence and military sharing as well as a host of other vital perks to the block.

The UK is not realistically able to completely break from the EU and retain an open boarder between Ireland and the UK occupied province of Northern Ireland without a) Handing Northern Ireland back to Ireland b) Having a hard international boarder between Northern Ireland and Ireland voiding the 1998 Good Friday Agreement peace treaty or c) loosing all privileges of the EU whilst remaining tied in to the EU laws and regulations and financial contributions.

As a result of the epic failure that is Brexit least 18 MPs have submitted letters of no confidence in the prime minister, as the backlash against her draft Brexit agreement grows.

To trigger a vote that could spark a change in Conservative leader, 48 letters – from 15% of Tory MPs – need to be sent to the backbench 1922 Committee. By Thursday afternoon only one letter had been submitted, by Friday morning 18 had been submitted with London based bookmakers offering odds on bets that May does not survive the month.

The influential group, chaired by Sir Graham Brady, is responsible for Tory leadership elections and governs the party’s vote of no confidence procedure which all UK political parties must have.

As of Friday morning, these are the 18 MPs that have confirmed publicly (several are thought to have submitted votes of no confidence but have not made their vote public) that they have sent their letters of no confidence:

:: Andrea Jenkyns

:: Andrew Bridgen

:: Philip Davies

:: James Duddridge

:: Nadine Dorries

:: Martin Vickers

:: Adam Holloway

:: Anne Marrie Morris

:: Lee Rowley

:: Simon Clarke

:: Jacob Rees-Mogg

:: Peter Bone

:: John Whittingdale

:: Laurence Robertson

:: Steve Baker

:: Maria Caulfield

:: Henry Smith

:: Sheryll Murray

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has refused to entertain backing out of Brexit if his party were to win a snap election, all but killing off what hopes there may have been for a Labour take over of Parliament. Leaving the only realistic candidate to replace May as former foreign secretary and highly controversial pro-Brexit Boris Johnson who stepped down earlier this year over accusations of racism.

With Northern Ireland’s DUP promising to block May’s Brexit plan is there any chance that Brexit will go through on a deal? Not really.

The choices seem to be hard Brexit with no deal or a second referendum to stop Brexit all together. The EU has given the UK permission to stop Brexit should the public or parliament vote in a majority to do so prior to the official leaving date.

However several leading politicians in the UK are strongly against giving the public that vote.

London Mayor Khan has taken part in street protests with the public calling for Brexit to be stopped. In recent polls almost 60% of the public now support stopping Brexit.

Brexit - Deal vote possibile outcomes

Table Credit: BBC Research London 2018

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About the Author

Caleb Simmons
Caleb Simmons | Journalist Since: 2003 | New York - Abu Dhabi - London - Barcelona