Coronavirus COVID19 | LIVE – Why are there two different fatality rates 3.7 per cent and 6.9 per cent?

al sahawat times covid19

Coronavirus COVID19 LIVE updates

Coronavirus COVID19 LIVE updates – FACT CHECKED and VERIFIED

Why are there two very different official death rates for COVID19 and what do they mean?


The closed case death rate is the calculated by comparing the number of recovered patients to the number of deaths. This is held are the most accurate metric for death rates. To date 68’672 people have recovered from COVID19 with 4’754 deaths. This means that out of all the people who have a conclusion to their infection 6.923% resulted in a fatality.


The open case death rate is somewhat misleading but is a favourite among politicians so as to reduce public fear and panic. The open case rate is calculated by comparing the total number historic and current cases, open and closed (recovered patients plus the number of critical patients plus the number of mild, moderate and symptom free patients) against the death rate. This is some what misleading because by definition the open cases are yet to have a conclusion which could be either a recovery or fatality. Under the open case death rate these either-outcome cases are calculated as recoveries despite the patients remaining infected. To date there are 68’672 recoveries + 51’019 mild to moderate cases + 5’711 cases + 4’754 cases theses are combined then compared to the 4’754 deaths giving a death rate of 3.66%. A very inaccurate and misleading figure.

Why is Open Case Death Rating so misleading? 

Imagine a totally hypothetical infection called Infection-A, if 50’000 people are currently actively infected, with 500 recoveries and 49’500 deaths then under the Open Case Death Rate the fatality rate is 49.5%. But this is not true as of the concluded cases 90% resulted in fatality. So if the currently infected cases had the same outcomes the total recoveries would be 1’000. Yet the Open Case Death Rate assumes all of the 50’000 actively infected cases will make full recoveries.



Mild to Moderate condition: 51’019 (89%)

Critical condition: 5’711 (11%)


Recovered: 68’672 (93%)

Fatalities: 4’754 (7%)

Since you’re here …

… we have a small favour to ask. More people are reading Al-Sahawat Times than ever but advertising revenues across the global media industry are falling fast. And unlike many news organisations, we haven’t put up a total paywall. We want to keep our journalism as open as we can. So you can see why we need to ask for your help. Al-Sahawat Times’ independent, investigative journalism takes a lot of time, money and hard work to produce. But we do it because we believe truly ethical media and an unbias perspective really matters.

“I appreciate there not being a paywall: it is more democratic for the media to be available for all and not a commodity to be purchased by a few. I’m happy to make a contribution so others with less means still have access to information.”

If everyone who reads our reporting, who likes it, helps fund it, the future of ethical media and the futures of our staff and their families would be much more secure. For as little as £1, you can support Al-Sahawat Times and it only takes a minute. Thank you.

This story is available on:


Talk to a journalist



Follow Al-Sahawat Times

⬆️ Follow on Instagram

⬆️ Follow on Twitter

⬆️ Follow on LinkedIn

⬆️ Follow on Facebook

⬆️ Follow on YouTube

Read it on APPLE NEWS

Read it on FLIPBOARD

About the Author

Caleb Simmons
Caleb Simmons | Journalist Since: 2003 | New York - Abu Dhabi - London - Barcelona